A difficult decision can feel like a heavy weight. You have two options, two paths that could change your life, and the future is a complete unknown. How do you choose when you have no way of knowing what waits at the end of either road?
It’s tempting to imagine a trial run, like a short stay in a new city, to know how it feels. But life rarely plays out like the version in your head. When you’re actually in it, the emotions are sharper and more complex than you pictured.
That’s why it helps to hold the choice up to the light from both directions: how you might feel if you go ahead, and how you might feel if you don’t. Clarity often comes when you picture both lives and notice which one sits more easily.
Focus on Your Process, Not the Outcome
When the future is uncertain, the best thing to do is build a strong decision-making process. Your future is a mix of your actions and outside factors you cannot control. So, begin by thinking about what information is important. Determine who you should consult. Build a method for combining the information in a logical way before you start.
For complex choices, this process may require a few tools to keep you on track. Use spreadsheets to organize your data. Make a list of criteria and the weight each factor should carry. Don't rely on your memory alone. These tools will help you keep track of what is important.
Know Your Risk
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You and a friend could have the same information and still reach different conclusions. A big factor is your personal risk tolerance. The unknown future makes decisions difficult when you have to live with the consequences and accept the worst-case scenario.
As you consider your options, think about the likelihood of a bad outcome and the size of that outcome. Are you willing and able to accept the worst-case scenario? When possible, avoid choices where the worst possible outcome is unacceptable. Next, consider the likelihood of that bad thing happening.
A choice with a small chance of a bad result is easier to live with than a choice with a big chance of a bad result. Ultimately, you have to live with the choice and its consequences, so picking an option that makes you miserable is not the best path.
Data Over Anecdotes
Data gives you a large number of cases to draw from. It is valuable because it gives you a sense of what has happened in the past and what might happen in the future. Despite the value of data, stories are often more compelling.
You may hear an anecdote about a single person who took a risk and failed, and that one story can stick in your mind. The story feels powerful, and the explanation for the outcome can feel more certain than it really is. Resist the temptation to let these stories influence you too much. If the data points in one direction, be careful of a single story that urges you to go a different way.
Listen to Your Gut
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After you have a data-driven process, take a pause if the decision still feels wrong. Psychologists often talk about two different thought processes: the fast, intuitive one and the slow, logical one. Your data-driven decision is based on a slow process. Gut feelings are based on the fast one, which is affected by all of the instances you have seen in the past.
Many times, your gut feeling aligns with what the data suggests. But sometimes, they conflict. That conflict is a sign that you should pause and think more carefully. Check to see if something is missing from your data or if the process you have used has led you astray.
You may still choose an option that "feels" wrong, but that feeling of uneasiness is a sign that you need to be extra vigilant. If the decision is one that can be amended or fixed even after you start on a particular path, use the tension between data and gut as a signal to remain vigilant for something you missed so that you detect problems as soon as they arise.
Practical Tips for Tough Choices
Here are a few quick ideas to help you move forward:
Gather enough information, then stop: Get enough data to make a balanced choice, then stop. You can reach a point where you are just looking for data that confirms what you already want to do.
Pro and con lists are not the best tool: The book Decisive states that these lists are okay for gathering information, but are not useful for making the final choice. We often create them with an existing bias. One pro can be worth more than all of the cons.
Get a similar perspective: Talk to people who have been through a similar experience. Ask them about their "before" and "after." They can give you valuable insight, but remember, they are not you.
Make all things equal: If you have two choices, remove the one obvious factor that is influencing your decision. For example, if you are choosing between two jobs and one has a much shorter commute, ask yourself which you would choose if the commute were the same. The answer to that question can tell you what you truly value.
Take the leap: At a certain point, just decide. You know what you know right now. Stop trying to predict the future. You are likely to adapt to whatever choice you make.
The important thing is to take action and be ready to handle what happens. It is better to make decisions, see how things unfold, and be open to adjusting your approach than to get stuck in indecision. When you trust your process and your ability to learn, you will develop the skills to navigate whatever comes your way.